Twelve months ago, President Donald Trump declared “liberation day” and launched a tariff war against the entire world, including key American trade partners in East Asia. Over succeeding months, additional tariffs were announced, modified, and withdrawn against countries and specific goods, such as steel and aluminum. Henry Gao, law professor at Singapore Management University and a trade expert, will take stock of the lasting impact of Trump’s weaponization of tariffs on East Asia and the global trading system. He also will ask whether the tariff war could bring a silver lining: the opportunity to finally address long-festering problems with the old trade system.  

In his book, Revitalizing the World Trading System, published in 2023, Alan Wolff guided readers through the past, present and potential futures of the World Trade Organization (WTO). In this talk and subsequent conversation, he will update his prescriptions for WTO reform in light of the recent turn to unilateral tariffs, bilateral trade deals concluded under their threat, and reforms to the multilateral trading system now being proposed by both the Trump Administration and the EU.  Mr. Wolff, one the leading trade experts of our time, will also consider the implications for Asia of these unprecedented challenges (and opportunities) for the world trading system.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought a massive acceleration of the trade war with China that he began during his first term and that President Biden deepened. So far, Trump’s focus has been on tariffs, not exclusive to China. Biden introduced a complex array of US export, import, investment, and sanctions regimes more narrowly targeting China, each with distinct but overlapping rules. The resulting trade regime is difficult for American companies to follow and also increasingly relies upon cooperation and enforcement by other countries. Transshipment restrictions have become an onerous element of both US and Chinese measures. Particularly affected are East Asian countries that are usually regarded as US partners but rely on trade with both superpowers. Christina Davis, a professor of Japanese politics at Harvard University and director of the Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, and Pasha Hsieh, professor of law at Singapore Management University, will discuss the economic and political impact that US-Chinese rivalry is having on these countries, how much agency they have to comply or abstain from the superpower struggle, the impact on regional trade patterns, and whether these smaller countries may help lead the way back to a more unified rules-based trade order.