End of year reflections from the U.S.-Asia Law Institute
Often the public discourse in the United States about East Asia focuses (understandably) on China and US-China relations. In 2025, we recommend paying more attention to our friends in the region, especially Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which face serious domestic challenges. Even from a self-centered “what will they do for us” perspective, Americans will need to understand factors that may constrain the capacities of East Asia’s democracies to do what the US seeks. Which these days is chiefly to withhold new technologies from China, their No. 1 or 2 trade partner.
South Korea currently is in the spotlight since conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol’s aborted attempt to impose martial law in early December. But the pot of Korean politics had been boiling for some time, with the opposition blocking Yoon’s agenda in the National Assembly and pushing ethics or criminal investigations of Yoon and his wife, while Yoon’s administration prosecutes opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and his former aides on corruption and other charges. The power struggle has important ramifications for law and policy in the areas of free speech, labor rights, and the status of women as well as foreign policy - especially relations with Japan and China.
Since its elections in January 2024, Taiwan also has struggled with a divided government in which the leading parties seem unable to collaborate even to accomplish basic functions such as approving the budget and filling key judicial positions. As in Korea – and here in the United States – inter-party battles are not resolved by elections but continue to rage at do-or-die decibels, impeding the quotidian work of government and weakening trust in institutions.
By contrast, Japan’s plight seems mild. The long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the lower house of the legislature in an October snap election and has been continuing to govern from a minority position. But Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces an uphill battle to win legislative approval of his budget and proposed tax reforms, throwing into question the LDP’s ability to double defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product by 2027.
Regardless of whether President-elect Donald Trump gives runway to the hawks in his leadership team or engages in his trademark deal-making with China, the United States is likely to continue leaning on Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea to actively join in its efforts to deny dual-use technologies to China. But is the United States paying attention to what those countries need in return, or the ways in which its policies may aggravate their domestic instabilities?
These are among the questions that we at the U.S.-Asia Law Institute at NYU Law School will be asking in 2025. We already began with a recent inquiry (here and here) into the risks to the US and unclear benefits of blocking a Japanese company, Nippon Steel, from buying the storied but much diminished U.S. Steel. As of this writing, reports indicate that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has come out against the transaction, signaling what experts say is an expansion of what counts as a “national security” risk.
While our guest speaker programs and publications are wide-ranging in topics and perspectives, during 2024 we paid particular attention to technology and Internet regulation in East Asia (examples here, here and here), women’s rights (here and here), and the status of Taiwan (here, here, and here). Taiwan will remain a focus in 2025, as we plan more speakers to help unpack the sometimes-arcane arguments about its legal status and defense. You can keep up with domestic and international legal developments in East Asia by reading our unique blog, This Week in Asian Law, a carefully curated weekly collection of law-related news links.
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Please make a tax-free donation before the year’s end. Thank you and see you in the new year!